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MechanismUnknown — conflicting evidence

Self-control failures occur because self-control draws on a limited, depletable resource

Weak-link patterns

Brief §8's named failure modes, computed from this claim's own paper roles and status -- not a single weakness score. Patterns B and E aren't implemented yet (need dependency-graph machinery, docs/BASIC_ROADMAP.md Phase 11).

C: Conflicting evidence

stored status is 'unknown_conflicting'

Open questions

Pattern G. Human-written, never generated -- deliberately no importance or priority score (docs/BASIC_ROADMAP.md's own precedent against inventing one, matching innovation_considerations).

Does ego depletion exist as a real, smaller-than-originally-claimed effect, or was the original effect size substantially inflated by publication bias -- as the multilab preregistered replication failure suggests?

Motivated by: Pattern C (conflicting evidence, though the rule chain resolves this one via a human-judgment clause rather than a pattern count)

Evidence map

Position shows direction, circle area shows citation count. Click a paper for the reason its role was assigned.

MECHANISMCLAIMUnknown — conflicting…Original Ego depletion: Is the active self a limited resource? 4,940 citationsBaumeister 19984,940 citesIndependent replication — failure A Multilab Preregistered Replication of the Ego-Depletion Effect 1,130 citationsHagger 20161,130 citesReview / meta-analysis Publication bias and the limited strength model of self-control: has the evidence for ego depletion been overestimated? 404 citationsCarter 2014404 citesReview / meta-analysis An updated meta-analysis of the ego depletion effect 185 citationsDang 2017185 cites
SupportsDisconfirmsSynthesisCircle area ∝ citation count

Evidence dimensions

Eight independent 0–5 judgments, each with a written rationale. Deliberately never summed into one score.

Evidence strength

Many small original studies, but the single largest, most rigorous test (the RRR) found null.

Replication (any kind)

One of the most-replicated paradigms in social psychology - replication attempts are not scarce.

Independent replication

The definitive independent multi-lab test found a pooled effect near zero.

Methodological triangulationscored retroactively

Evidence is same-paradigm replication plus meta-analytic synthesis; synthesis is not a different method of testing the claim.

Methodological quality

Original-era studies used small, non-preregistered samples typical of pre-2011 social psychology; the one high-quality test is the one that came back null.

Predictive success

The theory's own proposed mechanism (glucose depletion) has itself not held up well in later work.

Consensus

Field consensus shifted substantially toward skepticism after 2016.

Alternative explanations ruled out

Well-articulated competing accounts exist (expectancy/motivational effects, publication bias) - many live alternatives.

Scored by human.

Why this status

The derivation rule, evaluated top to bottom, first match wins. This is the rule itself — not a confidence score standing in for one.

This status rests on a human judgment, not the automated chain

Replaying only the machine-checkable conditions yields Preliminary, while the recorded status is Unknown — conflicting evidence. That is not a contradiction: rule 2 was specified as a judgment against a written criterion rather than a count, so a person reading the papers can reach it where this replay cannot. The stored value is authoritative; it is shown here so the difference is visible instead of implied.

  1. 1
    Unknown — unexplored

    4 paper rows (needs <3) and evidence_strength=2 (needs <=1); both required

  2. 2
    Unknown — conflicting evidenceneeds human judgment

    (a) 1 failure vs 0 success rows -> no; (b) 2 review rows — opposite-verdict test is a human judgment, not a count; (c) 0 conceptual failure vs 0 conceptual success, 1 original -> no

  3. 3
    Unknown — underdetermined

    alternative_explanations=2 (needs <=1) AND evidence_strength=2 (needs >=3)

  4. 4
    Established

    independent_replication=1 (>=4), evidence_strength=2 (>=4), consensus=2 (>=4)

  5. 5
    Strong, domain-limited

    evidence_strength=2 (>=4) AND independent_replication=1 (>=3), plus a written scope limit (human judgment)

  6. 6
    Active consensus, incomplete

    consensus=2 (>=4) AND (methodological_quality=2 <=3 OR alternative_explanations=2 <=2)

  7. 7
    Plausible, under active investigation

    independent_replication=1 (needs ==2) AND evidence_strength=2 (needs 2-3), plus recent activity (human judgment)

  8. 8
    Speculative

    1/4 rows are empirical (needs 0) AND evidence_strength=2 (needs <=1)

  9. 9
    Preliminarymatched

    4 non-theoretical row(s) exist AND independent_replication=1 (needs <=1)

Recorded rationale

v3 rule 2, clause (b): two review rows reach documented opposite verdicts - Carter & McCullough (2014, skeptical, pre-RRR) and Dang (2017, small residual effect, post-RRR). Naive citation-only guess was 'established'; divergence material. Pilot 1.